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    • At the Dawn of the Fourth Turning?

    Posted in: Current Events,history,Popular Culture by bill-o on October 27, 2008

    I have been fortunate to have read William Strauss and Neil Howe’s seminal work Generations when it was first introduced in 1991. I was introduced to it when I read the authors’ preview article for this book in late 1990 in the Washington Post. As soon as their sequel book The Fourth Turning came out, I bought it and read it quickly from cover to cover.

    The thesis of these two books is that the course of the history of the United States is not entirely linear but also cyclical in nature. There are regular patterns in the course of the life and times of the nation that are repeated usually once every four generations. The term used in Generations for this four-generation cycle is the Latin word saeculum. A saeculum usually lasts for about 88 years (the length of a relatively long lifetime), where each of four successive generations is about 22 years long.

    The four types of generations come in the following order:

    Idealistic, then
    Reactive, then
    Civic, then
    Adaptive

    As the generations move through time in four life-stages (childhood, young adulthood, midlife, elders), the eldest generation fades away from public life and is replaced shortly thereafter with a brand new generation of children of the same type.

    The alignment of the types of generations specifies what is called a turning. A turning, which roughly corresponds to the length of time of a generation, strongly influences the events of the day and how the public at large reacts to those events. The eldest generation during a turning most strongly influences its events and reactions, whereas the youngest (child) geneation influences events the least.

    The first turning is called a high. In this turning, a reactive generation is in charge and uses blunt-force to push through projects of national scale and scope. Society appears to be the most orderly during high turnings, yet witch hunts often occur during these times.

    The second turning is called an awakening. This is where young adult idealists begin to criticize the perceived lack of spiritual depth of the society as a whole. They begin to confront the existing order of things by protest in the streets or by withdrawal to communes in the countryside. Religious questions and yearnings that were suppressed during the previous turnings are pursued with fervor, and religious revivals usually occur during such awakenings. The arts and music are usually at their most creative during this period.

    The third turning is called an unraveling. This is when the spiritual fervor of the previous awakening burns out and people concentrate on individual pursuits and goals. Starting and growing businesses and the stock market takes a high degree of public focus. Civic-mindnesses deterioriates as the elder adaptive generation tries to patch over the fraying social contract with increasingly complex sets of rules and laws. Unresolved cultural disputes reach hard impasses, while show trials and silliness in the life of public figures are most likely to occur during such times.

    The fourth and final turning is called a crisis. This is where the entire resources and energies of the nation are put towards resolving a crisis or series of crises. This is where society as a whole is at its greatest peril and the entire social contract and fabric is rewritten for future generations. Here, the elder idealistic generation pours out the spiritual zeal that it had found in its youth for the good or ill of society at its darkest hour. The no-nonsense reactive generation produces mid-life leaders to lead the civic-minded young adults into life and death situations. People want to see big actions taken to confront big challenges and are even willing to tolerate big mistakes along the way.

    In the U.S., the latest first turning (high) came from 1945 to 1963. The second turning (awakening) lasted from 1963 to about 1984. The third turning (unraveling) started in 1984 and may now be giving way to the fourth and final turning of a saeculum, a crisis.

    To give you a better idea of how serious crisis turnings are, consider previous crisis eras in U.S. history. According to these books, the periods of crisis in American history include the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and the Great Depression and World War II (which were twin crises).

    ————

    Are we now at the next fourth turning, the next crisis era in the United States? My honest answer is mixed: yes and no. Yes, as per the overall mood and state of the nation; no, as we have not necessarily seen the dramatic “catalyst” event that Strauss and Howe say must usher in each fourth turning. (For example, the catalyst event for the Great Depression was the stock market crash in 1929. The catalyst for the Civil War was Lincoln’s election.) A catalyst event is so significant that even people contemporaneous to that event can recognize in it a clear “watershed” moment in the affairs of the world.

    We now see an idealist generation, the baby boomers about to enter their elder years of public and political influence. The adaptive, or “silent”, generation is starting to fade from public view and influence. An ice-cold and hardened “Generation X” is turning from its young adulthood as “slackers” into mid-life (as crisis managers?). And a young and eager generation is rising that is comfortable with moving in close step together with others in order to accomplish large-scale projects for the good of the whole society.

    The recent financial disturbances can be seen as a classic harbinger of a crisis turning. We see here the careful compromises of the past thrown out for quick and decisive public action: for example, very large bailouts of failing financial institutions with very little forethought or debate. We observe the yearning for change and hope for a new civic-mindedness that is expressed in Senator Obama’s presidential campaign. We look at the possibility of divided government giving way to nearly one-party rule (we’ll see in one week after the election), which is something characteristic of a fourth turning. We notice popular movies starring teens like the High School Musical series, where all of the young adults are dancing and singing together in choregraphed steps. (This is something that would have been unthinkable in the previous young adult generation of so-called slackers.)

    If this is not the start of the fourth turning, then it must be right around the proverbial corner.

    Please also see:

    http://www.shadowsandsymbols.org/?p=79

    http://www.shadowsandsymbols.org/?p=85

    Post tags: , , , ,

    19 Comments »

    1. While Strauss and Howe certainly added to our knowledge about generations, generations experts have poked lots of holes in their theories, like their rigid insistence on maintaining 2o year generations, while generation experts these days generally view generations as getting shorter.

      As many prominent experts have noted, Obama is a member of Generation Jones–born 1954-1965, between the Boomers and GenXers.

      Here is a column by Clarence Page about GenJones in last week’s Chicago Tribune: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/chi-oped1022pageoct22,0,2775732.column

      And this new 5 minute GenJones video features many top pundits (including David Brooks, Clarence Page, Dick Morris, Juan Williams, Karen Tumulty, Howard Wolfson, Michael Barone, etc.) specifically talking about Obama (and Palin’s) membership in Generation Jones, as well as the surprisingly big role that GenJones is now playing in this election, video at top of this page:
      http://www.generationjones.com/2008election.html

      Comment by ElectionGuy — October 28, 2008 @ 6:53 am

    2. Bill, this is the best summary of Strauss and Howe’s generational theory that I have read anywhere (and I did a lot of searching before writing about current events relative to their theory’s turnings).

      I also agree with you about where we are. I think we’re in a preparation stage. After rereading The Fourth Turning recently, I was struck by how the elder generations either prepare or fail to prepare for a crisis turning. My own thought is that, since most people don’t think a crisis of the magnitude Strauss and Howe discuss — one that threatens our national existence — is coming, most of our preparation (or lack of it) as a nation is on an unconscious level. If we are indeed late in a preparation stage, I see good signs and bad about how we are preparing.

      The Fourth Turning itself doesn’t suggest that the fourth turning is likely to come until at least 2010, but it does suggest it could come during our own decade. It certainly was accurate in characterizing the 2000’s public mood as being like that of the 1990’s except more anxious. (That was the result of 9-11, I think.)

      Here are a couple of good articles on what the election might mean in S&H terms:

      http://krusekronicle.typepad.com/kruse_kronicle/2008/02/mccain-vs-obama.html

      http://www.usnews.com/articles/opinion/2008/08/15/john-mccain-barack-obama-and-the-coming-generational-change.html

      Comment by Peter — October 28, 2008 @ 5:25 pm

    3. Referencing the comment of ElectionGuy above: Another reasonable criticism that I’ve heard about the generations as proposed here is that people might start to treat the generational type that their supposed to be in as being some sort of horoscope by which they’re supposed to live out their lives. In other words, are the generations as proposed here a form of fatalism?

      I definitely think that other views of the generations of U.S. history are also welcome.

      Comment by bill-o — October 28, 2008 @ 8:26 pm

    4. Peter, thank you for your comment. I’m humbled by your kind words. Thank you.

      Yes, these days and times do seem a lot like the 90s only a lot more anxious.

      Comment by bill-o — October 28, 2008 @ 8:29 pm

    5. Bill, with reference to your response to ElectionGuy, the relationship between the four temperaments on an individual level to the same temperaments on a generational level is fascinating. For some reason, I don’t think S&H bring this up in Generations, but it’s a big focus in the later book, The Fourth Turning (see pages 72 through 90). Using Myers-Briggs, the archetype model with which I am most familiar, I am an idealist. S&H say that I am a member of an idealist generation. It seems almost that, just as an individual embodies attributes of all temperaments (an expression favored by David Kiersey in Please Understand Me II) but favors one in particular, so might a generation. (By the way, Myers and Kiersey both battle the fatalism argument in their writings on an individual level that S&H fight on a generational level, the latter making clear in The Fourth Turning that, while our nation has tendencies depending on where we are along a saeculum, we still have free choice — the ability to use the best of the generational tendencies and to curb the worst.

      But I think it bears more thought, this relationship between individual and generational temperaments. Funny, for instance, how the most dominant generational types (hero and prophet) are associated with the least populous MBPI temperaments (rationalists and idealists, respectively, each amounting to about 10% of the U.S. population, according to Kiersey) (see The Fourth Turning, page 74).

      Another issue: how do the different types react to or resonate with their generation’s “dominant” tendencies? We see a lot of people in each generation that seem at odds with their generation’s predominant characteristics.

      I haven’t read much about the Jones Generation idea, but I doubt that it amounts to a refinement of S&H since it seems to be based on something other than the four-archetype system that has come down to us through the ages, even in Native American, Elizabethan, and other older cultures, as Kiersey points out.

      Comment by Peter — October 30, 2008 @ 1:05 am

    6. Peter, I hadn’t considered the connection between the four Myers-Briggs types and the four generational types in Generations and The Fourth Turning. That’s very interesting. Strauss and Howe do spend a considerable amount of time discussing the importance of the number four, such as the four seasons, etc.

      I know that Strauss and Howe do give some discussion to people in a generation who go against their generational type. However, this was not a big point of discussion in their books.

      You’re right: each generation must make its own choices and be accountable for them. There’s still a lot of room for free will here.

      Comment by bill-o — October 30, 2008 @ 7:26 pm

    7. Generation Jones????? Are you kidding me??? Only a baby boomer would say something like that.

      Comment by Rebecca — November 3, 2008 @ 11:41 am

    8. Yes, Wikipedia has an article about Generation Jones:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_Jones

      Comment by bill-o — November 8, 2008 @ 7:12 am

    9. The official Fourth Turning web site is at:

      http://www.fourthturning.com/

      Comment by bill-o — November 8, 2008 @ 7:15 am

    10. Here is Wikipedia’s list of generations:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_generations

      I’m not sure that I agree with this list but here it is for your review.

      Comment by bill-o — November 8, 2008 @ 7:18 am

    11. Strauss and Howe’s list of generations:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generations_(book)

      Comment by bill-o — November 8, 2008 @ 7:19 am

    12. As a so-called “Joneser” myself (born 1956), I too was unaware of this title (or is it a subtitle?) of my generation (sub-generation?). For even though I was too young for the war protests and etc., I was certainly mentally impressed by the idealism and spiritual fervor of that era–much more so than by the “X-ers” (BTW, I think that is an awful label for them). Thus I have always identified myself as a Boomer, not because of my age but because of the influence; despite the year I was born, I am still quite the idealist. I recommend S&H’s books, not because I necessarily think they’re always right, but because of good discussions like this one.

      Comment by Apoblepo — November 9, 2008 @ 10:24 am

    13. I completely agree that Generation X is not a good name for a generation. I think that X is a placeholder until this generation discovers its true role and identity in the story of America. And yes, it would appear that Generation Jones is a sub-generation of the Boomer generation. At least that’s how I find it best to look at this.

      Comment by bill-o — November 10, 2008 @ 8:42 pm

    14. I just found this article by Neil Howe, which comments on Generation X and Generation Jones:

      http://www.startribune.com/opinion/commentary/36012019.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUUF

      Comment by bill-o — January 1, 2009 @ 11:15 am

    15. I am sure when historians look back, the watershed moment of this crises will be 9/11. It compares well with the other pre-crises events such as John Brown’s attack and the Boston Massacre.

      Comment by Bob — March 8, 2009 @ 6:57 pm

    16. […] work on generations in the U.S., which I surveyed in a shadows and symbols post a few months ago (http://www.shadowsandsymbols.org/?p=44), there are now primarily three generations in the American […]

      Pingback by Shadows and Symbols » An Overlooked Generation? — July 3, 2009 @ 7:00 am

    17. […] 1.  At the Dawn of the Fourth Turning […]

      Pingback by Shadows and Symbols » Top 10 Posts — July 22, 2009 @ 7:44 pm

    18. […] the book The Fourth Turning and Generations, recently sat down for an interview to talk about the fourth turning. You can hear this interview […]

      Pingback by Shadows and Symbols » Neil Howe’s Update on the Fourth Turning — September 7, 2009 @ 6:32 pm

    19. Hi! I was surfing and found your blog post… nice! I love your blog. :) Cheers! Sandra. R.

      Comment by sandra742 — September 9, 2009 @ 8:42 am

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