Choke Point

Posted in: Current Events by bill-o on July 10, 2008

It is only 34 km (21 miles) wide. Yet even this narrow geographic distance is deceiving. Ships that pass through this waterway must do so in two opposing 3-km wide lanes. It is one of only seven strategic maritime passages on planet Earth: These are the world’s literal choke points, and this one is called the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike all but one of the other choke points, this strait has no alternative. It is the only way in and out of the Persian Gulf by sea.

And why is this oceanic passage that most Westerners have never heard of so important? Because 40% of the world’s oil (petroleum) supply passes out from the Persian Gulf into the Indian Ocean onboard oil tankers. Because of this, almost everyone outside of the Gulf is in someway dependent on this little opening in the sea, even if they could not name it or point to it on a globe.

So, who controls the Strait of Hormuz? No one, actually. It is open for use by all the world’s ships since the two sides of the Strait are controlled by two different countries. On the south side of the Strait is an exclave of Oman. On the north side is Iran.

As you probably have already heard, Iran is at the center of one of the world’s leading international controversies of the day. Iran’s nuclear program is widely believed to be military in purpose and not simply for civilian power generation. Iran may be as little as one year away from completing its first nuclear bomb.

Israel, threatened repeatedly by Iran’s leaders, is now practicing for an air raid against Iran. Could she pull off a large-scale attack against Iran’s widely dispersed and fortified nuclear facilities? We should not underestimate the Israelis. It is quite probable that Israel’s leaders see what is now called an existential threat: Iran’s future bombs could spell the end of the Jewish state. Unless Israel’s leaders determine that they can live with a nuclear-armed Iran or unless there is a sudden, dramatic political change in Iran, an Israeli attack upon Iran’s nuclear facilities within the next year is a very real possibility.

A key military leader of Iran has stated that Iran would move to cut off the Strait of Hormuz if Iran is attacked by either Israel or the U.S. The commander of the U.S. Navy has countered that the U.S. would make sure that the Strait stays open.

Would Iran carry through with this threat? (Quite possibly.) Do they have the military capability? Can the U.S. Navy stop them? (Probably yes.) Or is the mere threat of blocking the Strait enough to stop temporarily the oil tankers from going in and out? (Also, probably yes.)

Now several questions may be entering your mind. How is it that we live a world where so much of such an important commodity must pass through such a potentially precarious place? Who planned this? Who made it so? Could a war in some faraway place spiral out of control and shut off the gasoline (petrol) for my car?

… Yet so it is with all material things. We often forget that – in this life – the path from abundance to frugality is short and well-trodden. The storehouses of this world are sometimes plentiful one day and gone the next. All that it takes is the closing off of one choke point: a single weak link in the chains of provision and protection that we make for ourselves.

Just something to think about as the events in Southwest Asia unfold in the weeks ahead.

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